Can India overcome mighty Australia to make home World Cup final?

A home ODI World Cup comes down to this for the Indian women’s cricket team: the second semi-final against their most troublesome opponents, Australia, at the DY Patil Stadium in Navi Mumbai on Thursday.

If the weather does not play spoilsport – the greater Mumbai area has been hit by unseasonal rain – this could be a cracker of a semi-final if India can address their balance issues and put behind them a history of bottling in such crunch games.

Indian sides have long been at the wrong end of results against the most successful women’s team in history. Head-to-head in white-ball knockout games at ICC World Cups, Australia own a 7-1 record over India. But perhaps more importantly is Australia’s ODI World Cup knockout record against all opponents: played 13, won 11, lost two. India, in comparison, are 3-4 from seven such fixtures.

Australia are chasing at unprecedented eighth ODI world Cup, and their aspirations of becoming the first women’s team to win back-to-back titles since 1988 will be boosted if good news comes in from the medical staff. Skipper Alyssa Healy has missed two games with a minor calf strain, and if she is passed fit then it would likely be as a specialist batter, with Beth Mooney continuing to keep wickets.

Another key player who could return is Sophie Molineux, and if she too gets the nod from the medical team, it would mean that Georgia Wareham sits out.

If anyone had doubts over Australia’s tenacity at this edition of the World Cup, they must now be long banished. This team is 6-0 from completed matches, which includes some very clinical victories. The win over India saw a world record of 330 chased with an over to spare; they were 76/7 against Pakistan but went on to win by 107 runs; and Bangladesh were thrashed by 10 wickets in under 25 overs.

Each time Australia have been under the pump, someone has emerged as a saviour. That never-say-die attitude is the epitome of the Australian cricketer, and there is a reason the Australian women’s cricket team is the most successful ever.

Even in their last group stage match, with a place in the semi-finals already sealed, Australia found a new demolition star: Alana King, taking the best ODI figures by an Australian woman, a sensational 7/18 as South Africa were bowled out for 97.

India, led by Harmanpreet Kaur, have stumbled to get to the semi-finals. A pair of victories was followed by three straight losses, and suddenly it seemed like India’s knockouts chances were dashed. They failed to defend 330 against Australia, then were 234/3 chasing a target of 289 against England ended up losing by four runs. They stayed alive by beating New Zealand before a washout with Bangladesh gave them one point.

India’s performers have not been as consistent as Australia’s, and the loss of opener Pratika Rawal to injury before the big game is a big blow. Rawal, 25, is the second-highest run-scorer of the World Cup with 308 at an average of 51.33 and her opening stands with tournament leader Smriti Mandhana (365 at 60.83) have been impressive.

Rawal’s official replacement for the knockouts is Shafali Verma, but it does not seem likely that the team management will throw a player who was dropped from ODIs in 2024 right into a semi-final. Amanjot Kaur opened in the washed out game against Bangladesh and is one option. Uma Chetry could also get the nod unless Harleen Deol is deemed worthy of a promotion from one-down. A tough call, whichever way you view it.

Jemimah Rodrigues was dropped after two losses, then brought back for the must-win game with the White Ferns and scored 76 not out from 55 deliveries. The toss-up would be, once again, between Jemimah and Amanjot Kaur who at this World Cup has scores of 57, 13, 16, 18* and 15*. Unless India feel that Amanjot is opening material, in which case both fit into the 11.

With a few players rested for the Bangladesh match, Radha Yadav impressed with three wickets, but it seems likely that India will revert to Sree Charani and Sneh Rana as two of three spinning options.

India likely playing 11: 1 Smriti Mandhana, Shafali Verma/Uma Chetry, 3 Jemimah Rodrigues, 4 Harmanpreet Kaur (capt), 5 Richa Ghosh (wk), 7 Deepti Sharma, 8 Sneh Rana, 9 Kranti Goud, 10 Sree Charani, 11 Renuka Thakur

Australia likely playing 11: 1 Alyssa Healy (capt), 2 Phoebe Litchfield, 3 Ellyse Perry, 4 Beth Mooney (wk), 5 Annabel Sutherland, 6 Ashleigh Gardner, 7 Tahlia McGrath, 8 Georgia Wareham/Sophie Molineux, 9 Alana King, 10 Kim Garth, 11 Megan Schutt