As I predicted in these pages a couple of weeks ago, it is India versus New Zealand in the final of the ICC Champions Trophy here in Dubai on March 9. And it should surprise nobody who has followed the eight teams competing in this tournament – which was dragged back into the cricketing public’s awareness after eight years – that it is India and New Zealand in the summit clash. 

India, unfair advantage, and all that, have virtually patented the ODI format. Of course, Pat Cummins’ and his Australian team dashed their hopes on November 19, 2023, but other than that dark day, this Indian unit knows exactly what to do when it comes to ODI cricket. This Champions Trophy could have been played in Australia, South Africa or England and Rohit Sharma’s team would have walked into the final. 

And that is because of the combined understanding, experience and talent in their squad of 15 coupled with the fact that the level of competition in this Champions Trophy, with all due respect to the six teams other than New Zealand, are just not good enough to be here in the final. If you still cannot digest what you’ve just read, pause for a moment, and consider that India have won four out of four despite not having the game’s best bowler in their ranks, Jasprit Bumrah, and with several misfiring players.

Australia entered this tournament without six first-choice players, and its wonder that Steve Smith’s made it to the final four with that bowling attack. South Africa welcomed back several regulars after the recent tri-series in Pakistan but were still missing Anrich Nortje and Gerald Coetzee, and the lack of penetration in the bowling told in the end. England seem to have forgotten how to play ODI cricket. Afghanistan looked a good shot for the semi-finals but paid the price for starting off poorly against South Africa. Bangladesh and hosts Pakistan never stood a chance. 

As for the Black Caps, this is a team that is very settled and unified and balanced. They know what it takes to win in such conditions, having dispatched South Africa in Lahore this week to book their spot in the Champions Trophy final. Prior to that, the only loss that the Mitchell Santner-captained Kiwis faced in the tournament was to India in Dubai; and before the event started the Black Caps won every single match of the Pakistan tri-series including the final. And like India, what separates New Zealand from the other six teams is their spin bowling, complete with four different options and headlined by the brilliant Santner. 

Now only India, who New Zealand beat to win the 2000 edition of the Champions Trophy, stand between them and their second ICC 50-over title. 

When these two teams met last, New Zealand limited India to 249/9 with Matt Henry becoming the second Black Caps bowler to take five wickets at the Champions Trophy in 21 years, but his success was matched by Varun Chakravarthy, in his first game of the tournament, who claiming an identical 5/42 to bowl out the opposition for 205. 

Expect Santner’s team to come back hard this time, having played a match in Dubai and with the confidence of dispatching South Africa in Lahore. There were moments that New Zealand could have cashed in on against India in the group stage, after Henry and Kyle Jamieson reduced them to 30/3 and later when they were 133/3 in the chase. Don’t expect such sloppiness again. 

Twenty-five years ago in Nairobi, a Black Caps team captained by Stephen Fleming beat Sourav Ganguly’s India to win the second Champions Trophy – it was called the ICC Knockout back then – which remains their sole 50-overs title ever. Will history repeat itself in Dubai?

Well, the Kiwis know all about performance pressure in finals, and it would be foolish to write off this outfit because India beat them by 44 runs a week ago at this very venue. But yes, India are the firm favourites and it’s not just because of any perceived unfair advantage. 

Want a prediction? India to end 12 years without an ICC 50-overs trophy, giving Rohit a great opportunity to bow out of ODI cricket on a high and with his legacy cemented. But not without a few scares along the way from the Black Caps, the only worthy opponent for India in this Champions Trophy.

India probable XI: 1 Rohit Sharma (capt), 2 Shubman Gill, 3 Virat Kohli, 4 Shreyas Iyer, 5 KL Rahul (wk), 6 Axar Patel, 7 Hardik Pandya, 8 Ravindra Jadeja, 9 Mohammed Shami, 10 Kuldeep Yadav, 11 Varun Chakravarthy

New Zealand probable 11: 1 Rachin Ravindra, 2 Will Young/Devon Conway, 3 Kane Williamson, 4 Daryl Mitchell, 5 Tom Latham (wk), 6 Glenn Phillips, 7 Michael Bracewell, 8 Mitchell Santner (capt), 9 Matt Henry, 10 Kyle Jamieson, 11 Will O’Rourke