It feels like we’ve been discussing this for months now, doesn’t it? Before every Test match of the England tour, the makeup of India’s playing 11 becomes the focal point of discussions, not just because this is a transitional side but more so because figuring out the correct balance between batting and bowling has been a problem for a long time. 

The home series against New Zealand, the tour of Australia and now this ongoing series have each seen India’s think-tank make some questionable calls, all under the ominous shadow of Jasprit Bumrah’s workload management. Since Gautam Gambhir became coach a year ago, India have mostly favoured batting depth in Tests, at the risk of leaving out a bowler capable of boosting the team’s chances of taking 20 wickets.

But now, two days before the fourth Test at Old Trafford, India were hit by injuries to the allrounder Nitish Reddy and left-arm pacer Arshdeep Singh. Reddy, who played the second and third matches, has been ruled out of the remainder of the series owing to a left knee injury, while the uncapped Arshdeep will play no part of the Old Trafford Test after injuring his bowling hand. 

There is also serious doubt over the participation of Akash Deep, who injured himself during the previous match. 

This leaves India’s management with tough calls to make before the toss on Wednesday, but it has also made one decision straightforward: Bumrah will play the fourth Test at Old Trafford. 

Before the series, Gambhir stated that Bumrah would play three of five Tests matches given his workload and history of injury. Now, after losing at Lord’s to go down 1-2 in the series, India have decided that they cannot afford to wait until the final Test to play Bumrah. 

He has had eight days between matches, and despite bowling the second most number of overs in the series (86.4), it is the right call to play Bumrah at Old Trafford. India are down two seam-bowling options – and will almost certainly not have Akash Deep – and have shown an aversion to picking Kuldeep Yadav, so looking at the situation it did make sense to play the best fast bowler in the world. It would look very silly if India benched Bumrah in the name of workload management and then lost the fourth Test to surrender the series. 

There are still tricky calls to make. Get in Shardul Thakur for Reddy? Hand a debut to Anshul Kamboj? Bring in Kuldeep? Go back to Prasidh Krishna?

Let’s not forget that Shubman Gill’s team could have already wrapped up the series 3-0 if not for plenty of unforced errors at Headingley and Lord’s. Which is why India’s selection calls are the ones on which this vital Test match hangs. And they are are also linked to India’s decision to pick the bowlers to defend under-par scores. 

Despite Reddy’s absence, India have the personnel to have a line-up that bats down to eight, so that is one way to expect Gambhir and Gill to go. The second is to decide what their best top seven is and then back the bowlers to hang around and score some runs down the order. For reference, they can take confidence from how Bumrah and Mohammed Siraj batted on day five at Lord’s. 

Karun Nair has perhaps run out of backers after making 131 runs in six innings and could be replaced by B Sai Sudarshan at one-down. Rishabh Pant held up during two hours of practice on Monday and looks set to keep wickets. 

England, meanwhile, have announced their 11 for this Test. The 35-year-old spin-bowling allrounder Liam Dawson will play his first Test in eight years as the only change to the team that won at Lord’s. 

India probable playing 11: 1 Yashasvi Jaiswal, 2 KL Rahul, 3 B Sai Sudarshan, 4 Shubman Gill (capt), 5 Rishabh Pant (wk), 6 Ravindra Jadeja, 7 Washington Sundar, 8 Shardul Thakur/Anshul Kamboj, 9 Akash Deep/Kuldeep Yadav, 10 Jasprit Bumrah, 11 Mohammed Siraj

England playing 11: 1 Ben Duckett, 2 Zak Crawley, 3 Ollie Pope, 4 Joe Root, 5 Harry Brook, 6 Ben Stokes (capt), 7 Jamie Smith (wk), 8 Liam Dawson, 9 Chris Woakes, 10 Brydon Carse, 11 Jofra Archer