ICC Champions Trophy: Four semi-finalist predictions

Part of the fun of following cricket, whether you are a fan or analyst, is predicting. Ahead of the ICC Champions Trophy starting February 19, featuring eight nations and to be held in three venues in Pakistan as well as Dubai, where the Indian cricket team will be based, let’s put on our prediction glasses and look to the future, shall we? 

The Champions Trophy is nothing like the ODI World Cup, which while comprising only two more teams, lasts much longer and sees opponents traipse around the host nation from venue to venue. In this specific 50-over competition, it is a three-match shootout for each competing team, and you basically must win two out of three to make it to the final four.

In Group A are hosts Pakistan, India, New Zealand and Bangladesh. Group B comprises of Australia, South Africa, Afghanistan and England. With that in mind, here is how I see the semi-finals taking shape.

In Group A, India’s big challenge is New Zealand, who have a history of defeating them at ICC events. Yes, India beat the Black Caps in the semi-final of the 2023 ODI World Cup, but in 2021 it was Kane Williamson’s team that won the inaugural ICC World Test Championship final, and two years prior, also in England, they eliminated India from the ODI World Cup semi-final. 

The current New Zealand team has just won a tri-series in Pakistan, sailing through the competition unbeaten. They start their Champions Trophy campaign in Karachi, where they beat Pakistan in the final, and play one match against India in Dubai. Mitchell Santner’s team should comfortably make it to the final four. 

No doubt Pakistan are a threat, but they have glaring problems with the bat and ball. They also have a poor record in ODIs played in Dubai, winning just eight off 2 matches, and I suspect that India will continue their one-sided dominance over them at ICC events. New Zealand beat Pakistan twice in their own backward during the recent tri-series, so expect a hat-trick in Karachi as the Champions Trophy gets underway on Wednesday. 

With all due respect to Bangladesh for qualifying for the Champions Trophy ahead of Sri Lanka and West Indies – the cut-off for the event was based on ODI rankings – they do not have a good record at ICC events and since they finished the previous World Cup eighth out of 10 teams, Bangladesh have won four out of 12 ODIs. In this time, they lost series to New Zealand, Afghanistan and West Indies and only beat Sri Lanka 2-1. 

So, for me, it will be India and New Zealand who progress from Group A. 

Looking at Group B, on paper this is the tougher group, even factoring in severely depleted teams and an England squad who look lost in white-ball cricket. 

England’s abject performance in India recently, where they lost seven of eight white-ball matches, and their overall downward spiral in ODI cricket since winning the World Cup in 2019 does not inspire confidence. Since they exited the 2023 ODI World Cup in round one, England have lost 10 out of 14 ODIs and four series in a row, including two to West Indies who have not qualified for the Champions Trophy. Ben Duckett, their in-form opener, recently commented that English cricket fans would probably forget and forgive England losing 0-3 to India if they beat the same team in the Champions Trophy final. But does anyone really think this England side can make it that far? 

Australia are down five big players, leaving them a very depleted unit. Minus their talismanic captain Pat Cummins and his pace-bowling mates Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood, as well as the two allrounders Mitchell Marsh (injured) and Marcus Stoinis (retired), this Australian team will have to play extraordinary cricket to make it out of round one. If the two ODIs last week in Sri Lanka are any indication, Australia should not make it to the semi-finals.

But this is Australia we’re talking about, after all, so I for one am not ruling them out of the final four. Cummins’ team lost it first two matches at the last World Cup and then went on to win the trophy, so anything is possible with Australia. And yet, looking at how poor England have been and how depleted the Australian squad is, Group B does not look as competitive as it did when the ICC unveiled the Champions Trophy fixtures. 

While this might suggest that South Africa are best primed to make it to the semi-finals, they are a team also hit by injuries. The Proteas are missing two strike bowlers in Anrich Nortje and Gerald Coetzee, and during the tri-series in Pakistan the team failed to defend totals of 304 and 352, the latter match witnessing a superb partnership of 260 between Mohammad Rizwan and Salman Agha as Pakistan chased their target for the loss of just four wickets. 

South Africa are also carrying a clunky middle order, so even on the featherbeds expected in Pakistan, they currently do not resemble a title-winning team. 

Which brings us to Afghanistan, a dangerous team in Pakistan and Dubai. They have a fine blend of experienced players and youthful ones, some very canny spinners, potent pace bowlers and a formidable top order. And looking at how Afghanistan beat three previous World Cup winning nations during the 2023 tournament in India, backed up by a maiden appearance at the T20 World Cup semi-final stage in 2024, I think they are more than dark horses for the final four. 

So my prediction from Group B is that Australia, by the thinnest of margins, and Afghanistan progress to the final four. That means my four Champions Trophy semi-finalists are India, New Zealand, Australia and Afghanistan.