IND vs NZ – Champions Trophy 2025: Tournament Favorites Battle to Keep Winning Momentum

India vs New Zealand is going to be an exciting match in the ICC Champions Trophy 2025. With both teams having secured their spots in the semi-finals, the focus now shifts to player availability. There’s some uncertainty surrounding Rohit Sharma and Shubman Gill due to injury and illness, so we’ll have to wait and see how that unfolds. Given the circumstances, this match presents an opportunity to rest any players with lingering fitness concerns. That said, my stance remains the same as it was before the England game.

This match carries significant psychological weight, as both teams will want to head into the semi-finals with momentum and confidence. I still believe in fielding the strongest possible XI. If Rohit and Shubman are unavailable for any reason, I would likely have KL Rahul step in as the opener. That also means, India will need to find another opener. While Virat Kohli is an option, I wouldn’t necessarily go down that route. Instead, India might consider promoting someone unconventional, like Axar Patel, to take an aggressive approach at the top. Rishabh Pant could also step in and do the job. This raises the question of why India overlooked Yashasvi Jaiswal as an opener and instead opted for an excess of spin options, resulting in an unbalanced squad.

My core belief remains the same—you play your best XI unless injuries or fitness concerns force changes. I still back Arshdeep Singh as the opening bowler, and while I’m firm on that, I acknowledge that Harshit Rana has performed well, making it hard to argue against the selection choices. With Mohammed Shami dealing with a niggle, the door opens for Arshdeep to play against New Zealand—an opportunity that could be game-changing for him. India will hope these positive selection changes create a tough decision for the semi-final, with players seizing their opportunities to shine and impress.

An interesting tactical factor is India’s spin combination of Ravindra Jadeja, Kuldeep Yadav, and Axar, whom I would continue to play. With New Zealand potentially fielding three left-handers in their top five and five in their top eight, this could play a crucial role in shaping the match dynamics. With Jadeja, Kuldeep, and Axar predominantly turning the ball into left-handers, this match-up could be a crucial tactical battleground. India might look to rotate their spinners strategically to avoid giving New Zealand’s left-handers a consistent advantage, while Black Caps could counter by adjusting their batting order to capitalise on these match-ups. This subtle yet significant aspect of the game could play a key role in shaping the outcome for both teams.

India looks incredibly strong and in great form, having secured some impressive victories. Kohli’s century was a perfect boost—not just for the team’s dominance in that match but also for his own confidence, especially after a relatively quiet run. Everything seems to be falling into place for them at the right time.

India looks like the team to beat in this tournament, given their dominant performances and well-rounded squad. However, they face a formidable New Zealand side that has played some excellent cricket. New Zealand might need to make a few adjustments, especially with Rachin Ravindra returning from injury. Will Young made a strong start with a century in the opening game, while Devon Conway has remained a key presence in the lineup.

New Zealand’s top order will be interesting to watch, especially how they structure their top three, four, and five. Daryl Mitchell’s absence in the last game, along with Nathan Smith, has sparked some debate. It’s unclear whether Mitchell missed out due to injury or if it was a selection decision, but his role in the lineup remains a key talking point.

In my view, Mitchell should be back in the XI. New Zealand’s top order faces an interesting selection dilemma—potentially having to choose between Young, who scored a century in the first game, and Conway, a proven class act.

Rachin is a must-pick after his brilliant century in the last game, and Kane Williamson is locked in at number three. I would slot Mitchell in at four, followed by Tom Latham at five, Glenn Phillips at six, and Michael Bracewell at seven. Mitchell Santner takes the number eight spot, rounding out the all-rounders before moving on to the bowlers.

That’s the lineup I would go with, but New Zealand will need to be strategic in their selections. They might choose to leave out Mitchell, but I wouldn’t. Adjusting the top order slightly makes sense, especially given their preference for five bowling options. With Bracewell, Phillips, and Santner, they have a strong spin attack to lean on.

I expect New Zealand to stick with their approach, likely continuing with Matt Henry, Ben Will ORouke and Kyle Jamieson. With five genuine bowling options, I would maintain that balance. They are a fantastic side—brilliant in the field, with Glenn Phillips standing out as one of the very best in the modern game.

This is set to be one of the biggest matches of the tournament so far. New Zealand faces the added challenge of traveling to Dubai, where the conditions will be noticeably different. Quick adaptation will be crucial, but if any team can adjust seamlessly, it’s New Zealand.