IND vs NZ, Final, Champions Trophy 2025: Black Caps Must Be Bold and Tactical to Halt India’s Dominant Run

The India vs New Zealand clash as the final of the ICC Champions Trophy 2025, promises to be an absolute cracker of a game. Both teams come in brimming with confidence. India undoubtedly hold an edge, having played extensively in these conditions. The familiarity with the pitch and environment gives them a home-like advantage.

That said, New Zealand are a resilient and well-balanced unit. Unlike some other teams—such as South Africa, had they qualified—New Zealand have already played in these conditions, having faced India here earlier. That experience could prove valuable, as they would have learned key lessons from that encounter.

For New Zealand, and in fact both teams, winning the toss and batting first will be crucial in a high-pressure final. Posting a strong total upfront can make all the difference.

A major talking point is Matt Henry. He was instrumental in the previous fixture between these sides, picking up five wickets and making a significant impact. Arguably the bowler of the tournament in terms of wicket-taking and match influence, his absence will be a massive setback for New Zealand. Finding a replacement of his caliber will be an uphill task.

If Henry is unavailable, it will undoubtedly give India a slight psychological edge. However, we’ll have to wait and see—there’s still a chance he could return to bowl, and hopefully, his injury isn’t as serious as initially feared.

From a strategic standpoint, New Zealand will need to make some key adjustments. In their previous game against India, they bowled 25 overs of pace. In this game, they must be prepared to utilise their four spin options if conditions are favourable to spin bowling.

A crucial factor will be their ability to take the pace off the ball when needed. Looking at India’s approach in that match, they bowled just eight overs of pace, despite both teams having similar resources. New Zealand must carefully assess how they deploy their bowlers and be flexible in adapting to the conditions.

For me, Mitch Santner has been the standout captain of the tournament. His ability to manoeuvre his team and execute tactics effectively has been outstanding. He will need to be at his absolute best once again, but perhaps also focus on slowing the game down by strategically using his pace bowlers.

I expect New Zealand to stick with three frontline pacers—whether that includes Matt Henry (if fit), or a replacement like Nathan Smith or Jacob Duffy, alongside Kyle Jamieson and Will O’Rourke. Additionally, they have four spin options, assuming they retain the same playing XI. Managing these resources carefully will be crucial for Santner, and his tactical acumen will play a key role in striking the right balance.

Strategically, New Zealand will also need to refine their approach with the bat. One key factor will be how they handle the new ball—they must be more aggressive in the early overs than they were in the previous encounter against India. They need to get ahead of the game much quicker.

In that match, they had only around 49-50 runs on the board after 11 overs. This time, they must aim for a stronger start to set a better platform. Spin will be the biggest challenge for New Zealand, particularly in the middle overs. How they tackle bowlers like Varun Chakaravarthy, Kuldeep Yadav, Ravindra Jadeja, and Axar Patel will be crucial.

Learning from their previous performance, they must ensure they’re not playing catch-up and instead stay ahead of the game with a well-thought-out batting strategy.

Executing this strategy won’t be easy, especially with Mohammad Shami in top form. He was outstanding in the last game, and targeting him could be a risky proposition. Instead, New Zealand might look for opportunities elsewhere—perhaps by attacking Hardik Pandya.

If they can put early pressure on Pandya, they might force Rohit Sharma to rethink his captaincy plans and adjust his bowling strategy on the fly. Disrupting India’s pre-planned approach could give New Zealand an edge and help them get off to the quick start they need.

Beyond batting and bowling strategies, New Zealand’s exceptional fielding could also be a game-changer. They have arguably been the best fielding side in the tournament, and their sharpness on the field might just influence the outcome of the match.

A brilliant catch or a sharp run-out could be game-defining moments, and New Zealand have that advantage. Glenn Phillips, in particular, has been the standout fielder of the tournament. Their fielding prowess could play a crucial role in shifting momentum.

However, despite all these factors, New Zealand’s success will ultimately come down to how they navigate the middle overs. That phase of the game will determine their chances.

New Zealand need to be both brave and calculated. Brave in attacking the new ball early and getting ahead of the game, rather than playing catch-up. Calculated in how they manage their bowling resources, especially in using spin effectively during the middle overs.

They might also look at targeting Kuldeep Yadav, who hasn’t quite been at his best this tournament. Exploiting any potential weaknesses in India’s attack could give New Zealand the edge they need. If New Zealand are looking to target a specific bowler in the middle overs he might be their best option. Applying pressure on him could force Rohit Sharma to rotate his bowlers sooner than planned. Given that India will likely play all four of their spinners, New Zealand’s approach must be both strategic and bold—reading the match situation carefully and playing with intent.

As for India, they are in excellent shape. Their previous game against New Zealand was particularly significant. At 30-3, they were in real trouble, but it proved to be a defining moment for players like KL Rahul, Hardik Pandya, and Shreyas Iyer—who has been absolutely outstanding this tournament. That experience of handling early setbacks will only add to India’s confidence heading into this crucial match.

Shreyas Iyer hasn’t always received the credit he deserves in the media, but his performances have been outstanding. He has batted with fluency, control, and composure, often stabilising the innings when India has been in trouble.

Not only has he rescued the team in challenging situations, but he has also carried forward the momentum set by the top order, showing both flexibility and consistency in his role.

India’s likely strategy will be to bat first, post a strong total, and then let their spinners dominate the middle overs. KL Rahul, too, has been exceptional—his class and temperament in a difficult role have been instrumental in India’s success.

Shreyas Iyer has adapted brilliantly to various batting positions, consistently finding the right tempo for each match situation. Batting at No. 5 or 6 is particularly challenging, as the role changes depending on the game’s demands. Unlike the top-order batters, who follow a more predictable approach, middle-order players must constantly adjust their game.

Iyer has handled this challenge exceptionally well, showing both adaptability and composure. Players like Axar Patel have also stepped up when needed, further strengthening India’s depth.

One more point I want to make is that both teams must be smart in using their left-right hand combinations effectively, both in batting and when deploying spinners.

For New Zealand, if India’s left-arm spinners are in action, it might make sense to promote Tom Latham ahead of Daryl Mitchell to counter the match-up. Similarly, India could adjust their batting order based on which New Zealand spinners are operating.

Flexibility will be key. Both teams may need to adapt on the fly, making tactical decisions that align with the match situation to gain the upper hand.

In summary, New Zealand must be brave and calculated, while India will look to execute their plans with precision to maintain their dominance.