India and South Africa have been preparing extremely well for this Test match series. Both teams had an A-team series aligned just before the main series, and that has worked out very well. A number of the players who will be involved in this Test series have already been playing competitive cricket in preparation, and that level of readiness is an important advantage for both teams. For India, however, a few contentious issues remain, particularly around the number three position.
I firmly believe that Sai Sudharsan is the best option at number three. I hope India back him and give him the time and support he needs. The top two—Yashasvi Jaiswal and KL Rahul— look settled, and Sudharsan, for me, is the long-term answer at one-down. With Shubman Gill now changing his batting position and also leading the side with great aplomb, India need stability around him. Sudharsan, in my view, is someone who will shine if he is backed. He has had a middling start to Test cricket so far, but that is not unusual. Many young batters experience that phase when they are starting out at this level, and it should not be held against him. I would continue with him at number three.
I also feel Dhruv Jurel should play. There is a bit of debate around his place—whether he should be in the XI, or whether Nitish Kumar Reddy fits better into the late middle order— but when you look at selection, there are a couple of guiding principles. One, you always keep an eye on the future and the age profile of the side. Two, you rely on your instincts as
a selector about who might go on to serve the team well over many years. And three, you reward performances. It sounds obvious, but Jurel has produced significant performances and deserves selection on that basis. I would not place him in the top three, but around number six feels right.
For me, Rishabh Pant should bat at five. I have said for a long time that Pant should be in the top four or five and not keep wicket. In that case, Jurel could take the gloves and Pant could play purely as a batter at five. Ultimately, the selectors will decide how to balance the XI, but this looks a reasonable and balanced option.
India’s bowling combination will depend heavily on the surface. There is some talk that the pitch might be dry and lacking grass, but even if that is the case or not, India’s strength remains their spin. I would be surprised if they do not play Kuldeep. Although he was not particularly impressive in the A-team series, a combination of Jadeja, Kuldeep and perhaps Washington Sundar seems likely. That would leave Bumrah and Siraj as the seamers.
However, the final combination will ultimately depend on the pitch because that will be absolutely crucial for India.
They are coming up against a very strong side who are full of confidence and have just had a good series in Pakistan. But when I compare the two teams, I feel India have a slightly better batting line-up, a slightly better spin attack, and an equally strong—if not marginally better—seam attack. And that is saying something even when considering someone like Kagiso Rabada, who is outstanding. India, for me, hold slight advantages in all departments.
What they need, however, is the right type of pitch: a surface that starts good and slowly deteriorates. Not a minefield, but a pitch that allows their batters to score substantial runs and brings their spinners into the game later. The last time against New Zealand they got a little outgunned, but this Indian side is now more well-balanced. If they get the right surfaces, they should be in an excellent position.
Reverse swing could also be a factor if the pitch is dry and offers little grass. That does not necessarily suit one team more than the other. Bumrah and Siraj are more than capable exponents of reverse swing, and Rabada and possibly Marco Jansen can also exploit it very well. If it were up to me, I would play both Jansen and Rabada for South Africa.
A few Indian players, including skipper Shubman Gill, will need to adjust quickly after going from Indian conditions to Australia and back to India. That adjustment period might take a little time, but overall India still appear to be in a strong position, provided the pitch suits their strengths.
As for South Africa, this series arrives at a very good time for them. They have just come from Pakistan, where they levelled the series 1-1 with a win in the final match. Their A-team has also been playing in India. They have a spin attack that deserves serious respect: Keshav Maharaj, Senuran Muthusamy and Simon Harmer. All three are excellent, highly experienced spinners, and Harmer in particular could play a crucial role, especially against India’s top order which may feature two or three left-handers. His off-spin will be vital early in the innings. Maharaj continues to improve, and Muthusamy gives them a strong third spin option. It is possible South Africa could field all three.
Their batting is solid and has been for years. They are world champions and have benefitted enormously from the IPL. Aiden Markram may have missed out a bit in Pakistan, but Tony de Zorzi has been scoring heavily in these conditions. This will be a very
interesting and competitive series. India start as slight favourites because of home conditions, but South Africa should not be discounted at all.
Rabada is central to South Africa’s chances. While much attention will naturally go to their spinners, that first new-ball spell from Rabada is going to be absolutely crucial in trying to break open India’s batting. Their bowling attack can trouble India, and their batting can put up big totals. I see this as a close series. India hold a slight advantage, but a strong, competitive South African performance in both Tests would not surprise me in the least.
