India versus Australia at the Gabba. Has a nice ring to it, right? 

What transpired at the iconic venue in Brisbane in January 2021 will remain etched in the minds and hearts of Indian cricket fans, and as Rohit Sharma’s bruising team faces Australia for the third Test of the 2024-25 Border-Gavaskar Trophy this weekend, countless will be hoping that lightning does indeed strike thrice.

Nearly four years ago, India arrived at the Gabba facing the weight of history and needing something miraculous to win their second consecutive Test series in Australia. The team had been rolled out for 36 in Adelaide, but then went on to win at the MCG and draw in Sydney to set up the decider. India, since 36 all out, had seen their talismanic captain Virat Kohli fly home for the birth of his first child and lost seven members of their squad before the start of the Brisbane Test. 

Australia were unbeaten at the Gabba since 1988. India were forced to dip into their travelling reserves to form an 11. And yet on day five, as the shadows began to lengthen, Ajinkya Rahane’s band of merry men clinched an audacious victory. 

Fast forward to December 2024, and India are back in Brisbane and in a tough spot. They’ve failed to get to 200 in three of four innings this series and their captain is in the middle of an all-time low as a Test batsman (not to mention four losses in a row in charge). 

Rohit’s woeful slump – he’s averaging 11 from his last six Tests – has been widely headlined owing to his stature, but the fact is that India’s batting has collectively failed in three out of four innings on this tour. And there appears to be no respite at the Gabba, where a green top with pace and bounce has been rolled out. 

David Sandurksi, the head curator at the Gabba, has indicated that both teams can expect a lively and bouncy surface but not one like the strip on which Australia achieved a shockingly quick win over South Africa in 2022. Back then, the series opener was wrapped up in two days as 34 wickets fell on a green pitch to rekindle chatter about the ‘green mamba’ days of the Gabba. 

Keeping this in mind, India could swap a fast bowler and a spin-bowling allrounder. Rana impressed on his Test debut in Perth, but looked a different bowler with the pink ball in his hands as he struggled to hit the right areas and went at nearly five and a half runs per over. There is merit to persisting with a bowler of his style – bang it in, hustle the batsmen – in Brisbane where bounce will be a factor, but if Rana suffers another poor match, it will hurt India. The alternatives are Akash Deep, a skiddier type of pacer with a knack of troubling left-handers off the pitch, and the taller Prasidh Krishna. 

Ravichandran Ashwin’s lack of impact in Adelaide could see him replaced with fellow Tamil Nadu offspinner Washington Sundar, unless India value Ravindra Jadeja’s batting down the order more. Australia have three left-hand batsmen in their top seven and thus an offspinner makes more sense. Washington can also produce bounce off the Gabba surface, so he looks the likeliest of the three spinners to get the nod.

Josh Hazlewood is the only changed to Australia’s XI that beat India by 10 wickets in Adelaide to level the series 1-1. Hazlewood returns in place of Scott Boland, who skipper Pat Cummins admitted was unlucky to lose his spot in the team after claiming five wickets in Adelaide. 

India likely 11: 1 Yashasvi Jaiswal, 2 Rohit Sharma (capt), 3 Shubman Gill, 4 Virat Kohli, 5 Rishabh Pant (wk), 6 KL Rahul, 7 Nitish Reddy, 8 Washington Sundar, 9 Jasprit Bumrah, 10 Akash Deep, 11 Mohammed Siraj

Australia likely XI: 1 Nathan McSweeney, 2 Usman Khawaja, 3 Marnus Labuschagne, 4 Steve Smith, 5 Travis Head, 6 Mitchell Marsh, 7 Alex Carey (wk), 8 Pat Cummins, 9 Mitchell Starc, 10 Nathan Lyon, 11 Josh Hazlewood