Two familiar opponents meet in Dubai in game two of the ICC Champions Trophy, with little having changed since they last met in the format during the 2023 ODI World Cup. Of course, Bangladesh are without their most influential allrounder of all time in Shakib Al Hasan, while India are missing their talismanic pace bowler Jasprit Bumrah, but other than that there is not much to separate the narrative that so often precedes matches between these two teams at ICC tournaments. 

India have been parked in Dubai since February 15, hardly a couple of days after dispatching England for a 3-0 sweep in a home ODI series and have had ample time to acclimatize to the conditions. It’s not as India have loads of experience playing at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium, but it is enough: six trips to the venue for ODIs have resulted in five wins, including the Asia Cup final victory in 2018, and in T20Is India have won five of nine games in Dubai. 

Since the 2023 World Cup final, India have won two of the three ODI series they’ve contested, and though depleted by the loss of the injured Bumrah, they are still a very good team for a tournament like the Champions Trophy where you need to win two of three games to make it to the semi-finals. 

Beyond familiarity with the venue and recent ODI form is India’s record over Bangladesh at ICC tournaments: 5-1 at ODI World Cups, 1-0 at the Champions Trophy and 5-0 at the T20 World Cup. The odds are heavily stacked against India’s opponents in Dubai on February 20. 

Bangladesh have struggled in the 50-over format over the past year and are without their two most successful batsmen ever, Tamim Iqbal and Shakib. Since they exited the 2023 World Cup in the group stage, Bangladesh have a 4-8 record in ODIs which includes series defeats to New Zealand, Afghanistan and West Indies. 

Their captain Najmul Hossain Shanto stated last week that Bangladesh are here to win the Champions Trophy, but it is difficult to see a team in transition beat India, New Zealand and Pakistan to make the final four. Full marks to Bangladesh for qualifying ahead of West Indies and Sri Lanka, but they will have to upend logical predictions with some extraordinary cricket to get into the semi-finals. 

Regarding the team combinations, it is unlikely that Rishabh Pant will play given that KL Rahul was India’s designated wicketkeeper in all three ODIs against England this month. Pant has recovered from the blow he copped on the left knee from a fiercely struck shot from Hardik Pandya in the nets, but the team management’s faith in Rahul’s ability to rebuild innings appears to be the deciding factor. 

The other question is which third spinner the Indian team management will opt for: Varun Chakravarthy or Kuldeep Yadav? The latter made his ODI debut at the age of 35 in the second match of the England series and was then confirmed for India’s Champions Trophy squad at the expense of the backup opener Yashasvi Jaiswal, whereas Kuldeep played the first and third games. 

The weather here in Dubai is warm, and you feel for the team that will field first on Thursday. Batting first may not be a bad idea, but then since its Dubai, where most captains in ODI and T20Is opt to field, there’s enough evidence to suggest that fielding first will be the way forward, even if dew is no expected to be as big a factor in mid-February. 

As for a result, expect India to maintain their dominant record over Bangladesh at ICC events. 

India probable XI: 1 Rohit Sharma (capt), 2 Shubman Gill, 3 Virat Kohli, 4 Shreyas Iyer, 5 Axar Patel, 6 KL Rahul (wk), 7 Hardik Pandya, 8 Ravindra Jadeja, 9 Kuldeep Yadav, 10 Mohammed Shami, 11 Arshdeep Singh

Bangladesh probable XI: 1 Tanzid Hasan, 2 Soumya Sarkar, 3 Najmul Hossain Shanto (capt), 4 Towhid Hridoy, 5 Mushfiqur Rahim (wk), 6 Mahmudullah, 7 Mahedy Hasan Miraz, 8 Rishad Hossain, 9 Taskin Ahmed, 10 Nahid Rana, 11 Mustafizur Rahman