India vs Australia Champions Trophy 2025: India favourites, but Australia’s big-game experience can’t be overlooked

The upcoming semifinals between India and Australia is going to be an intriguing contest. When you look at India, there’s no denying they have a clear advantage. They’re playing on familiar ground, using the same dressing room, and fully accustomed to the conditions. It’s been discussed extensively, but the benefits are undeniable—no travel fatigue, a deep understanding of the pitch, and conditions that are working in their favor. The slower surface and assistance for spinners further tilt things in their direction, making it an uphill challenge for Australia.

But what exactly are they doing well? For starters, they bat deep and bowl deep, boasting a well-balanced lineup. Their long batting order gives them stability, and their recent performance would have been particularly satisfying. While they wouldn’t have wanted to be 30-3, they still managed to post a strong total by digging in when it mattered. Shreyas Iyer played a crucial role, and towards the end, contributions from Axar Patel, Hardik Pandya, and a bit of Ravindra Jadeja helped them finish strong.

Having players who’ve spent time in the middle under pressure ahead of a semi-final is crucial. In short tournaments, middle and lower-order batters—those at 5, 6, 7, and 8—sometimes don’t get many opportunities to make meaningful contributions simply because the top order has dominated. That can be both a positive and a drawback. But in India’s case, their middle order has been tested, which could prove invaluable in high-stakes moments.

India’s squad will likely feel a strong sense of contribution, with everyone playing a role in the team’s success so far. That’s a big positive, even if they wouldn’t have wanted to be 30-3 in the last game. Still, overcoming that challenge only strengthens their confidence. 

It will be interesting to see how they shape their lineup for the semi-final. We can expect India to stick with a similar lineup, featuring plenty of spin options with Axar, Jadeja, and the in-form Varun Chakaravarthy. It’s set to be another spin challenge for Australia. Chakaravarthy has been outstanding—what a couple of months he’s had, dominating in England and now making a statement early in his ODI career with a brilliant five-wicket haul. Moving forward, it will be fascinating to watch the battle between Kuldeep and him, especially when conditions aren’t offering as much turn. India certainly has a wealth of options to choose from.

Rohit and co are in excellent shape, especially with a fully fit squad and key players returning. Shreyas Iyer has been outstanding—his recent innings was nothing short of brilliant, and his consistency has made him a crucial part of India’s success. There’s no doubt he’s playing a pivotal role. Previously, there was a sense that while India’s batting runs deep, losing early wickets could leave them slightly vulnerable. However, their ability to recover from tough situations suggests they’re more resilient than ever.

It could make things a bit trickier, but recovering from 30-3 to post a strong total will be a huge confidence boost for India heading into the game. That kind of resilience can be invaluable in high-pressure matches.

As for Australia, the last thing they needed was an injury to Matt Short, which only adds to their challenges ahead of this crucial encounter. With five injuries and absentees in their camp, Australia is facing a challenging situation. Competing on equal footing against a team that knows the Dubai conditions inside out is already a challenge—especially when coming in from completely different conditions. On paper, that gives India a significant advantage.

However, credit where it’s due—Australia have proven time and again that they are arguably the greatest tournament team of the modern era. They thrive under pressure, and despite setbacks, they remain a formidable force.

Australia are a team that rises to the occasion in big moments and major tournaments—and this is exactly that. Despite their depleted squad, they still have match-winners on the field. One player who becomes even more crucial for them is Travis Head. If there’s anyone in the world right now who can completely change the course of a game in an instant, it’s him. His explosive ability at the top of the order makes him a key factor in Australia’s chances.

Australia still have plenty of firepower. With players like Josh Inglis, Alex Carey, Steve Smith, Marnus Labuschagne, and Glenn Maxwell—who, despite a quiet tournament so far, remains a potential game-changer—they have match-winners who can turn the tide in an instant.

So, I’m certainly not writing Australia off. Cooper Connolly is likely to come in as an option, which serves a dual purpose. First, it strengthens their batting depth, and second, it gives them a much-needed left-arm spin option—something that could be crucial against India’s predominantly right-handed batting lineup.

With seven of India’s top eight batters being right-handed—depending on their final lineup—having a left-arm spin option could be a valuable addition for Australia. They already have Adam Zampa and Maxwell, but adding that extra variation to their attack would provide better balance and make their bowling unit more dynamic.

I’d expect Connolly to come in, but there’s a trade-off to consider. Fraser-McGurk could be a direct replacement for Matt Short in the batting lineup, but Australia would lose Short’s off-spin in the process. That means they’ll need to find a way to cover those missing overs.

That’s why I’d opt for Connolly over Fraser-McGurk—he not only adds depth to the batting but also provides a left-arm spin option, which could be crucial in balancing the attack.

Australia might see it differently, which brings up the big question—who will open the batting? That’s a tough call.

For me, there are two main candidates. One is the captain, but ideally, I’d prefer to keep him at No. 3. The other option is Inglis, but given his brilliant century in the middle order, they may want to keep him there. It’s a tricky decision that could shape their approach in this crucial game.

Inglis has opened in one-day cricket before, so it’s a role he’s familiar with. However, replacing Short remains a real dilemma for Australia. There are three options on the table: pushing Inglis to the top, moving Steve Smith up, or bringing in Fraser-McGurk. If I had to make the final call, I’d go with Inglis and Travis Head as openers while bringing in Connolly to strengthen both the batting depth and spin options.

Australia might choose to simply push everyone up, with Steve Smith opening, but it will be interesting to see how they handle this decision.

Talking about Smith’s captaincy, I think he has been outstanding. Managing a bowling unit over 50 overs is no easy task, especially when relying on multiple part-time bowlers. He has handled the challenge well, adapting the strategy to make the most of his available options.

Australia have four genuine bowlers, complemented by two or three additional options who can step in as needed. Smith has managed this mix exceptionally well, making smart tactical decisions that have contributed to the team’s success. His captaincy deserves recognition, and he will need to be at his absolute best once again to maximize these resources. In Dubai, those extra bowling options—whether it’s Maxwell, Connolly, or others—will be crucial for Australia’s chances.

These bowlers will be essential and will have to play a significant role at some stage. How Smith rotates them in and out of the attack could be a game-changing factor, especially depending on the batters at the crease—whether left-handers or right-handers. This tactical subplot will be fascinating to watch as the match unfolds.

Throughout the tournament, I’ve highlighted India’s bowling strength—they have six genuine options. In contrast, Australia have four front-line bowlers. That could be a crucial factor in the game.

India has incredible depth in their bowling attack, which is a significant advantage.

Overall, considering all factors, I strongly favor India. It’s remarkable to think they’re doing this without Jasprit Bumrah. His absence might have a slight psychological effect on Australia, especially since he was so dominant in their recent series down under. Bumrah’s absence is undoubtedly a boost for Australia, giving them a slight psychological lift.