The two unbeaten teams of the 2024 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup will meet in the final in Barbados on June 29, pitting what countless fans view as the two biggest ‘chokers’ in world cricket together. Others will say this is the final between the two teams most desperate to win an ICC trophy, given their respective histories. Everyone is correct.
South Africa, infamously, have never won an ICC World Cup with their title success in the inaugural KnockOut Trophy in 1998 their sole multi-team trophy to date. They have experienced pain across 32 years since readmission to international cricket, losing must-win World Cup games in 1992, 1996, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2022 and 2023 across the ODI and T20 formats.
India have not won an ICC tournament since MS Dhoni’s team defeated England in a rain-interrupted Champions Trophy final since 2013. In that time, they have been beaten in the semi-finals of two ODI World Cups (2015, 2019) and the final in 2023 as well as in the final of the 2014 T20 World Cup and the semi-final of the 2016 edition, to go with defeat to Pakistan in the 2017 Champions Trophy final.
In semi-final one yesterday, over three decades of South African World Cup pain was erased inside the two-odd hours it took for Aiden Markram’s team to demolish Afghanistan in Trinidad. That nine-wicket win is South Africa’s first in a knockout game at a global event in 1998.
In semi-final two, Rohit Sharma’s India smashed defending champions England by 68 runs to avenge their loss to the same opponents in the 2022 T20 World Cup semi-final. India, under Rohit, are in their third ICC final in a year and their fans will hope that tomorrow does not go the way the 2023 World Test Championship final and ODI World Cup final ended.
So then, will South Africa end their 32-year jinx to win a World Cup, or will India get their hands on the trophy that has eluded them since 2007?
The answer lies in the conditions in Barbados as well as the intent of the two finalists. It is not a coincidence that the two teams with the best bowling attacks are in the final of the T20 World Cup. Conditions in America and the West Indies have been that way, and India and South Africa, to their credit, have been the best on these surfaces.
South Africa are 8-0 in this World Cup largely because of their bowlers, who have been superb across bowler-friendly conditions in New York and slow tracks in the Caribbean. Their captain, Markram, has led astutely and deserves plenty of credit. South Africa’s batting has obvious chinks, not too dissimilar to India’s. Only Quinton de Kock has topped 200 runs, with David Miller’s 148 the next best.
What separates this Indian team from the one that went to the 2022 T20 World Cup is a more aggressive batting intent and the impact that Jasprit Bumrah has had, who was injured two years ago. Bumrah has been India’s spearhead, excellent in each game so far while conceding a mere 4.12 runs per over. His presence has clearly had a role in Arshdeep Singh taking 15 wickets, but the two bowlers who have properly backed Bumrah’s brilliance are Axar Patel and Kuldeep Yadav.
Axar did not grab a lot of wickets in New York but the ones he took were vital, and his control on those pitches was influential. He also helped curb Australia’s enthusiasm in the Super Eight round and in yesterday’s semi-final it was Axar who ripped the heart out of England’s batting. Kuldeep had to wait his turn until India arrived in the Caribbean and has 10 wickets at economy of 5.87 to underline his value.
Rohit is the third-highest run-getter of this World Cup with 248 at an average of 41.33 and a strike-rate touching 156. He’s just played his two most important T20I innings in a row, in his ninth T20 World Cup. No other Indian player has managed 200 runs. Suryakumar Yadav has been solid in the middle order with 196 at Rishabh Pant has 171. Thereon, the returns have thinned with Virat Kohli bringing up the rear with an average of 10.71 which is the worst for any Indian opener in a single T20 World Cup.
What separates Markram’s unit from past South African teams at World Cups is not as obvious as India’s difference this time around. South Africa have always had superb pace attacks, outstanding fielders and sharp leaders. They’ve had much better batting lineups than this one. But this team has used the conditions the best, bowling Test-match lengths to routinely stifle their opponents.
Kagiso Rabada, Anrich Nortje and Tabraiz Shamsi have been consistently good. Marco Jansen set up the drubbing of Afghanistan in the semi-final. Keshav Maharaj has nine wickets, and his success included a crucial last over against Bangladesh when South Africa won by four runs. Ottneil Baartman made a few appearances and grabbed six wickets at an economy of 4.94, his best performance being the narrow one-run victory over Nepal when he defended eight runs from six balls.
The batting has problems, but it has managed to do just enough so that the bowlers have been the heroes (which also includes Jansen’s 14-ball 21* in that three-wicket win over Bangladesh). Being 8-0 sent Markram’s team into the final with a sense of belief – as well as humility – that no past South African team has had at a World Cup.
History beckons South Africa in Barbados. Beat India, and everything might well be forgiven. For Rohit’s team, this final is a chance to prove to their fans and detractors that Indian cricket has not forgotten how to win titles. You could not have asked for a better final, given that there are no more desperate teams in world cricket than India and South Africa, whose respective bowling units have been terrific to watch all tournament.
