Fifteen Test matches. That’s how long it has been since an England team won an Ashes fixture in Australia, dating back to the successful 2010-11 tour. Australia have lost one of their last 13 Test series at home, to India in 2020-21. 

The odds, you would imagine thus, are heavily stacked against Ben Stokes and his England team – who chose just one tour game, against the England Lions. But there is a narrative underling the home team’s defence of the Ashes that suggests they are somewhat vulnerable – Dad’s Army vibes, some have smirked – heading into the first Test in Perth from November 21 with half of their historic four-man bowling attack ruled out.

That regular captain Pat Cummins was side-lined for longer than anticipated was known before the English team landed in Australia, and then eight days before the Perth Test came news that Josh Hazlewood would also play no role with a hamstring injury.  That leaves Australia to field a bowling ensemble of Mitchell Starc, Nathan Lyon, Scott Boland and the uncapped Brendan Doggett at Perth Stadium, where Stokes’s team will become the first from England to play a Test. 

Since they were first joined as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes, Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc have taken 81& of the wickets claimed by Australian pacers at home. And the man relegated to drinks duty for many series since his debut, Scott Boland, has 62 wickets in 14 Test matches at an average under 17. 

Can England take advantage of a depleted Australian team, or will trying too hard to play the ‘Bazball’ way come back to bite them? 

Steve Smith will lead Australia in the absence of Cummins, who has not recovered fully from injury. Sam Konstas has been dropped from the Test squad, with Jake Weatherald in line for a debut in Perth as Usman Khawaja’s latest opening partner. Marnus Labuschagne is back, after scoring five centuries across formats in domestic cricket over the past few weeks, and he will slot back in at one-down. With Cameron Green back, Beau Webster has lost his place in the middle order after a successful run across seven Test matches. 

South Australian Doggett brings to the Australian line-up experience and form, having taken 48 wickets in 10 first-class games this season, with a couple of five-wicket hauls. Nathan Lyon will return to the 11 after being dropped for Australia’s previous Test, the pink-ball game in the West Indies. The veteran offspinner sits on 562 wickets, which is just one short of Glenn McGrath’s tally of 563, second only to Shane Warne. 

As for England, the only pre-series debate in their 11 was the No 3 spot. But that has been won by Ollie Pope, who in the touring team’s only practice match scored 100 and 90. That means 22-year-old Jacob Bethell will have to wait for his turn on his first Ashes tour. 

England’s attempts at reclaiming the Ashes centre on their pace attack, which is the quickest they have taken to Australia in 15 years. Jofra Archer is back after several injury issues, and will play his first Test in the country. Mark Wood is also back, after a successful comeback from knee surgery, and then there are Gus Atkinson, Josh Tongue and Brydon Carse to choose from. Atkinson looks set for Perth, and then Stokes and Brendon McCullum have to decide between going for a spinner in Shoaib Bashir, or a fourth quick in Carse.

Bashir, who has not played a Test since injuring himself during the third Test of the past summer against India, conceded runs at nearly seven per over on the final day at Lilac Hill, for match figures of 2/151 from 24 overs. An all-pace attack is not out of the equation. 

Much of the amped up pre-Ashes banter has been around Joe Root’s inability to score a century in any format on Australian soil, and the second-highest run-getter in Tests, at 34, is certainly on his final trip Down Under. Root sits on 13,543 runs which is second to only Sachin Tendulkar’s 15,921. Will the England icon cement his place as an all-time great with a bumper tour of Australia? 

Australia playing XI: 1 Usman Khawaja, 2 Jake Weatherald, 3 Marnus Labuschagne, 4 Steve Smith (capt), 5 Travis Head, 6 Cameron Green, 7 Alex Carey (wk), 8 Mitchell Starc, 9 Nathan Lyon, 10 Brendan Doggett, 11 Scott Boland

England probable XI: 1 Ben Duckett, 2 Zak Crawley, 3 Ollie Pope, 4 Joe Root, 5 Harry Brook, 6 Ben Stokes (capt), 7 Jamie Smith (wk), 8 Gus Atkinson, 9 Jofra Archer, 10 Mark Wood, 11 Shoaib Bashir/Brydon Carse