Perhaps no team wants to win the 2025 ICC Champions Trophy than defending champions Pakistan, given all that has transpired in the eight years leading up to the tournament’s opening match on February 19 in Karachi. Pakistan beat India to lift the Champions Trophy in 2017, but since then they have not won a single multi-team tournament. 

They failed to make the final of the 2018 and 2023 Asia Cups and in 2022, when the tournament was tweaked to the T20 format, they were beaten by Sri Lanka. A month or so later, Pakistan were beaten by England in the final of the T20 World Cup, which came after elimination to Australia in the 2021 edition and before a first-round exit in 2024. In 2019 and 2023, Pakistan failed to make it to the final four of the ODI World Cups. 

Around the off-field failures are the stinging matters of having to play the 2023 Asia Cup and 2025 Champions Trophy on a hybrid model basis, apart from doubts over the nation being able to host this year’s tournament despite having ample time to prepare the three venues. The 2025 Champions Trophy is the first ICC event to be held in Pakistan since the 1996 World Cup, and the success of their team would mean the world to Pakistan cricket and its fans, apart from the matter of $2.24 million on offer for the winners. 

If we look at their most recent run of form in ODIs, there is reason for Pakistan fans to worry. Coming off three away series wins in a row, the home team lost both its matches of a tri-series to New Zealand, including the final just last week. The batting is too reliant on Fakhar Zaman up top and Mohammad Rizwan and Salman Agha in the middle order, the pace bowlers are erratic and there is no world-class spinner. Losing the young opener Saim Ayub before the start of the tri-series was a big blow to Pakistan, given that Babar Azam has struggled as makeshift opener. Haris Rauf has also been sidelined since the opening match of the tri-series, and only just returned to bowling in the nets. 

Throw in the mega-hyped match with India on February 23 in Dubai, where to date Pakistan teams have won just eight of 22 ODIs, and it is not looking anywhere near like a cakewalk into the final four for Rizwan’s team. 

Pakistan’s first opponents on Wednesday are New Zealand, the same side as aforementioned, beat them twice to win the tri-series. The final of that match is the same as the Champions Trophy opener, and thus Mitchell Santner and his team-mates will feel they are on equal footing as the hosts. 

The batting is far from gunpower, but there is plenty of depth and variety with Kane Williamson, Devon Conway, Daryly Mitchell, Tom Latham and Glenn Phillips. And if Rachin Ravindra slots back in after copping a blow to the head during the tri-series, the Black Caps will look a steelier team. And Ravindra’s return would mean a four-pronged spin attack, after Santner, Michael Bracewell and Glenn Phillips which is, man to man, better than Pakistan’s spin quotient. 

The pacers are also nowhere near as enigmatic as Pakistan’s, but the showing of Will O’Rourke, who was Player of the Match in the Karachi final last Friday, does augur well. As always, New Zealand enter an ICC tournament without much fanfare, but with the promise of making the semi-finals and given their familiarity with conditions, the final. 

Expect a hat-trick of wins for the Black Caps over Pakistan as the Champions Trophy gets underway. 

Pakistan probable 11: 1 Fakhar Zaman, 2 Babar Azam, 3 Saud Shakeel, 4 Mohammad Rizwan (capt/wk), 5 Salman Agha, 6 Tayyab Tahir, 7 Khushdil Shah, 8 Shaheen Shah Afridi, 9 Naseem Shah, 10 Haris Rauf, 11 Abrar Ahmed

New Zealand probable 11: 1 Will Young/Rachin Ravindra, 2 Devon Conway, 3 Kane Williamson, 4 Daryl Mitchell, 5 Tom Latham (wk), 6 Glenn Phillips, 7 Michael Bracewell, 8 Mitchell Santner (capt), 9 Nathan Smith, 10 Jacob Duffy, 11 Will O’Rourke