SA vs NZ Champions Trophy: Expect a thrilling contest as SA slight favourites to win this

The second semifinal between South Africa and New Zealand is poised to be an epic encounter between two of the best teams in the ICC Champions Trophy 2025. I think both the teams will be pleased to be playing in Pakistan. The conditions in Pakistan, with flatter pitches, provide a bit more fluency for their strong batting units, which have been performing exceptionally well.

For South Africa, a key challenge will be figuring out how to restructure their top order if they want to optimize their performance.

In the last game, both Tony de  Zorzi and Temba Bavuma were unavailable, which led to Tristan Stubbs getting a chance. If both are fit for the next match, de Zorzi might be the one to miss out, with Bavuma returning to open the innings.

With Heinrich Klaasen back in the lineup, South Africa has always needed to balance their batting order. However, the illnesses of de Zorzi and Bavuma temporarily delayed that decision. If I were making the call, I’d have Bavuma opening with Ryan Rickelton, followed by Aiden Markram at three, Van der Dussen at four, and then Klaasen, Miller, and the rest of the middle order taking shape accordingly. That’s how I’d structure my top six, assuming everyone is fit and available. 

Having Klaasen back in the lineup is a massive boost for South Africa. In my opinion, he’s the best player of spin in the world, and his recent performances have been nothing short of dominant.

It almost felt like a net session for Van der Dussen and Klaasen toward the end vs England, giving them a chance to build confidence ahead of the semifinal. England was disappointing, but South Africa was absolutely dominant. While they might have preferred a more competitive challenge before the knockout stage, they still look to be in a strong position.

South Africa’s bowling attack is brimming with confidence and depth. They have five genuine bowling options, each bringing variety to the attack. Jansen provides a left-arm option, while Wiaan Mulder delivers consistency with his wicket-to-wicket bowling in the middle overs. Keshav Maharaj adds spin to the mix, and the pace duo of Lungi Ngidi and the brilliant Kagiso Rabada makes their attack even more formidable.

South Africa have most bases covered while maintaining batting depth, with Marco Jansen at seven and Mulder at eight. They haven’t had to sacrifice a batting spot to strengthen their bowling attack, which makes them a well-balanced side.

Both teams look incredibly strong, but the lingering question—often raised with South Africa—is their performance in big matches. However, this squad seems different. They appear to have moved beyond the burdens of past tournaments, playing with a fresh mindset unshackled by previous disappointments.

Although they lost the last T20 final, this South African squad seems mentally resilient and in a strong place. From the start, I’ve believed that India and South Africa are the two best teams in the competition. Whether that ends up being the final remains to be seen, but both sides are looking formidable.

New Zealand is always a joy to watch, and for me, they are the best fielding side in the competition. They’ve taken some outstanding catches, with Glenn Phillips in a league of his own. His catch to dismiss Kohli was simply out of this world. Moments like these can turn games in an instant.

As expected, they brought Daryl Mitchell back in the last game, though he didn’t make much of an impact. One challenge they might face is finding a way to fit Devon Conway into the XI, but it seems unlikely they will make that change. Personally, I would strongly consider including Conway. He missed out on the final XI in the last game, but he offers a valuable left-handed option and can anchor the innings if he gets set.

That said, Will Young has performed well, and it’s tough to drop someone who scored a big hundred in the first game. Meanwhile, Kane Williamson remains a crucial figure in the lineup, having played brilliantly—his presence allows the team to build around him.

New Zealand also boasts impressive bowling depth, making them well-suited for the conditions. With Mitchell Santner, Michael Bracewell, and Phillips providing spin options, and Matt Henry excelling with the new ball, they have a well-rounded attack featuring three seamers and five genuine bowling options.

As for predicting the outcome, South Africa might be slight favorites, but this promises to be a thrilling contest. Both teams are not just confident but in top form heading into this match. It’s going to be a tough one to call—perhaps a single outstanding moment in the field could be the difference.