Shades of 1992 as rejuvenated Pakistan meet well-oiled New Zealand at the SCG

Arguably the most unpredictable edition of the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup has entered the knockout stage, with Pakistan and India this past weekend joining New Zealand and England in the semi-final. India confirmed their place at the top of group 2 after a fourth win out of five, with Pakistan taking second spot following a narrow win over Bangladesh which itself came very soon after Netherlands dumped South Africa out of the tournament on Sunday of oscillating fortunes.

The first semi-final will be between New Zealand and Pakistan at the Sydney Cricket Ground on November 9, a battle of two very different teams. If you’re looking for who are favourites, it would be at about 60-40 to Pakistan.

Babar Azam’s team profited from South Africa’s stunning capitulation to Netherlands, and despite the captain’s poor form this is a team bristling with renewed confidence after losing to India and Zimbabwe in consecutive matches. A combination of Shabad Khan, Shan Masood, Mohammad Wasim, Haris Rauf and Iftikhar Ahmed has punched hard to keep Pakistan alive, and Shaheen Afridi’s return to form with four wickets against Bangladesh has underlined why this squad possesses the best pace attack in the tournament.

The shades of 1992 are unmistakable, too. Thirty years ago, in Australia during the ODI World Cup, with Imran Khan struggling for form and some gaping holes in the lineup, Pakistan launched their famous ‘cornered tigers’ campaign and went on to win the trophy for the first time. Back then, they beat New Zealand in the semi-final and England in the final. History could repeat itself if Babar’s team beat New Zealand and India lose to England in the other semi-final.

But this is Kane Williamson’s New Zealand, a team that has consistently impressed at ICC events. They have not won the ODI or T20 World Cups, but having played good cricket to reach the final four they will back themselves for a reprise of last year when they beat England in the semi-final to meet eventual winners Australia at the summit. Pakistan did beat New Zealand in the final of a T20I tri-series not long before the World Cup, but this is a better-looking Kiwi outfit.

TEAM NEWS

NEW ZEALAND

The only consideration New Zealand might make – and it is a small ‘might’ – is to drop Lockie Ferguson for Adam Milne. Ferguson’s six wickets have come at 17.42 apiece, but at he has been the costliest of all New Zealand’s bowlers, conceding runs at 8.13 per over. Otherwise no changes are expected.

New Zealand likely XI: 1 Finn Allen, 2 Devon Conway (wk), 3 Kane Williamson (capt), 4 Glenn Phillips, 5 Daryl Mitchell, 6 Jimmy Neesham, 7 Mitchell Santner, 8 Tim Southee, 9 Ish Sodhi, 10 Trent Boult, 11 Lockie Ferguson

PAKISTAN

Babar and Mohammad Rizwan have not dominated, but clutch performances from the likes of Mohammad Haris and Shan Masood have shown that this team can hit back from adversity. No reason to expect any changes here either.

Pakistan likely XI: 1 Mohammad Rizwan (wk), 2 Babar Azam (capt), 3 Mohammad Haris, 4 Shan Masood, 5 Iftikhar Ahmed, 6 Shadab Khan, 7 Mohammad Nawaz, 8 Mohammad Wasim, 9 Naseem Shah, 10 Shaheen Afridi, 11 Haris Rauf

PITCH & CONDITIONS

There is very little chance of rain in Sydney on Wednesday, which is good news. The SCG surface has had six matches played on it, of which New Zealand has featured in two, and so there is every chances of turn. In this regard, those fours each from Mitchell Santner and Shadab stand to be pivotal. Speed will also be critical, and here it could come down to which bowling unit takes pace off the ball better.

PREDICTION

On form and stability, New Zealand are the team to back. For sheer improbability and that often maligned word ‘momentum’, you have to say Pakistan. A tantalizing semi-final, no matter how you look at it. Something says New Zealand will hold their nerve in a humdinger.