T20 World Cup: What can we expect from first tournament in Australia?

 

If the first round of the 2022 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup is anything to go by, the eighth edition of the most lucrative event in T20I cricket could end up being the most unpredictable yet.

The qualifying stage began with Asia Cup winners Sri Lanka slumping to a shock 55-run defeat to Namibia, who then lost a nail-biter to Netherlands – who after two games were Group A leaders – and on Thursday exited the tournament after a seven-run loss to the UAE. Dasun Shanaka’s team rebounded to thrash UAE by 79 runs despite the legspinner Karthik Meiyappan taking the tournament’s first hat-trick, and then sneaked into the Super 12s with a 16-run win over Netherlands. Namibia’s narrow loss to UAE edged Netherlands into the Super 12s alongside Sri Lanka.

In Group B, Scotland shocked favourites West Indies with a 42-run win in their opening match, after which Ireland kept their Super 12 round hopes alive in remarkable manner as they recovered from 61/4 to chase Scotland’s 176 and West Indies held off Zimbabwe.

What this means is that the eight teams who had previously qualified for the Super 12 stage – hosts and defending champions Australia, England, New Zealand and Afghanistan in group one and India, Pakistan, South Africa and Bangladesh in group two – now have to be careful of potential banana skins and leave no room for nerves. The second round gets underway on October 22 with trans-Tasman rivals Australia meeting last year’s runners-up New Zealand, before the big match between India and Pakistan at the MCG a day later.

 

GROUP ONE

While many view Australia as the team to beat at the World Cup, that is a tag they might not want to be associated with, because the fact is that in every edition of the tournament so far, the pre-tournament favourites have never won the prize. In 2021, in what was effectively a ‘home’ World Cup, India suffered that same fate after exiting in the first round.

The strongest team, arguably, is England. While Jos Buttler’s unit failed to win a limited-over series at home this summer, worries about their ability to compete at the T20 World Cup appear to have dimmed. Successive series victories in Pakistan (4-3) and Australia (2-0) and though a couple spots remain up for grabs in the 11, this is a team boasting incredible six-hitters, a very deep batting order and a varied and experienced bowling attack. If any team can push Australia, it is England.

New Zealand can never be discounted at ICC tournaments, but this time the team does not look as tough as earlier, despite 13 of the 15 that went to the 2021 T20 World Cup final being around in 2022. Kane Williamson is a shadow of true self, Martin Guptill – at his seventh T20 World Cup – does not have form to show for and the inconsistent Finn Allen lacks experience. Trent Boult, Tim Southee, Lockie Ferguson and Ish Sodhi offer so much statistically and value-wise, but they too have been up and down of late.

The last team in this group, Afghanistan, have a very good pace attack and the tremendous spin trio of Rashid Khan, Mujeeb ur Rahman and Mohammab Nabi, as well as the T20 globetrotter Qais Ahmad, and yet you worry that this outfit is too prone to crumble. Nabi’s team has been put in the tougher group, and it will take something incredible for Afghanistan to proceed past the Super 12 round.

 

GROUP TWO

This time, India are overly reliant on their much-vaunted batting lineup because the bowling is problematic. Losing Jasprit Bumrah before the World Cup is a huge loss, and the recent struggles of Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Harshal Patel and Yuzvendra Chahal leaves plenty of doubt on the team’s ability to keep opposing teams in check. In skipper Rohit Sharma – who will be playing a record eighth T20 World Cup – and KL Rahul, followed by Virat Kohli, second-ranked Suryakumar Yadav, Hardik Pandya and the veteran Dinesh Karthik, this team has some tremendous batsmen but the fear is that even if they manage to post 200 in each match, the bowlers will concede 201.

Pakistan have no such worries when it comes to their bowling – Shaheen Afridi is back and Haris Rauf is just incredible these days – but conversely the batting is the concern. The pair of world No 1 Mohammad Rizwan and skipper Babar Azam are both Pakistan’s strength and weakness, it can be argued, for as good as they have been as an opening act, they have often batted so long that a rather brittle middle order has been consistently tested. The return of Fakhar Zaman just days ago is good news, for Pakistan have struggled to lock in a reliable one-down. In recent times, this team has shuffled around their No 4 and while it has worked on occasion – Mohammad Nawaz in the Asia Cup, Shadab Khan in the New Zealand tri-series – the need is for stability.

South Africa, despite no Rassie van der Dussen and Dwayne Pretorius, are on paper a formidable side. A cursory glance at their squad shows how much skill, experience and balance this team has, with names such as Quinton de Kock, Rilee Roussow, David Miller, Reeza Hendricks, Heinrich Klaasen, Tristan Stubbs, Tabraiz Shamsi, Keshav Maharaj, Kagiso Rabada, Anrich Nortje and Marco Jansen underscoring the diversity. Some will say that such a balance squad and players well-suited to Australian pitches gives South Africa their best chance to win the T20 World Cup. But as we know with South African teams, it is never so straightforward and not all about skill at ICC events.

Bangladesh, led once more by the top-ranked T20 allrounder in Shakib Al Hasan, have endured a very poor year in the format and there are gaping gaps in the lineup. Too many floaters and fix-it players, a fading bowler in Mustafizur Rahman and some trigger-happy batsmen paint a picture of a team struggling to decide what best to do in T20Is. Bangladesh teams have historically struggled in Australia, barring the 2015 ODI World Cup, and it is difficult to see them upend India, Pakistan and South Africa.

 

SEMI-FINAL PREDICTION

If Australia and England play to potential, they are obvious movers from group one of the Super 12s into the final four. Sri Lanka, having come back from the Namibia defeat – much as they did during the Asia Cup, where they started with a loss to Afghanistan – could prove the team the rest want to avoid slipping up against.

In the other group, the fight is between India, Pakistan and South Africa. India need their bowlers to take wickets, Pakistan their batsmen to score runs. South Africa, burdened by the loss of form of their captain Temba Bavuma, will have to emerge from the shadow of consistent failure at ICC events.

My top four, then? England, Australia, India and Pakistan.