Temba Bavuma has not played a Test match since he captained South Africa to glory in June 2024 by beating Australia in the third ICC World Test Championship (WTC) final. He has played four Tests in India, from which he averages 19 without a fifty. It has been 15 years since any South African team won a Test in India. 

The odds are stacked against the Proteas, who most recently drew a Test series 1-1 in Pakistan and are currently placed at fifth on the WTC table. In Bavuma’s own words, South Africa’s mantra for playing in India is “prepare for the worst and hope for the best”. 

Overall, since they first toured India in 1996, South African teams have played 19 Test matches here, from which they have won five, lost 11 and drawn three. Those five victories at Eden Gardens in 1996 when Hansie Cronje’s team won the second Test by 329 runs, followed by a 2-0 sweep in 2000, an innings victory in Ahmedabad in 2008 and then in 2010, when Graeme Smith’s team went 1-0 up in Nagpur. 

But as far as series goes, the 2- sweep in 2000 remains the only time that South Africa have won a series in India. 

In 2015, a very good side was beaten 0-3 on turning tracks. In 2019, South Africa were blanked 0-3 by an Indian team that was trying out new openers in Rohit Sharma and Mayank Agarwal, both of whom scored double centuries (as well as Virat Kohli with 254 not out). On that tour, the margins of victory were massive for India: by 203 runs in Visakhapatnam, an innings and 137 runs in Pune and by an innings and 202 runs in Ranchi. 

So, as you can see, the odds are heavily stacked against South Africa, even against this Indian team in transition. Of course, they will offer a stiffer challenge than West Indies did recently, who went down 2-0 to Shubman Gill’s team. But looking at how South Africa fared in Pakistan recently, the signs are that they have their work cut out. 

Challenge number one is dealing with Jasprit Bumrah and Mohammed Siraj, who form a potent new ball pace pair even in Indian conditions. Bumrah was low key in the West Indies series, and we can expect him to lift his game given the challenge of playing the reigning WTC champions. Siraj has proven a thorn in touring team’s sides over past couple of series, especially with the new ball. 

Challenge number two is how South Africa’s batting copes with India’s spinners, Ravindra Jadeja, Kuldeep Yadav, and Washington Sundar. In Pakistan, South Africa lost 27 of 32 wickets to spin and there was enough indication that their batting has issues against left arm spin and off spin. Eden Gardens will offer some turn and bounce, and Guwahati is an unknown commodity when it comes to Test cricket. 

Temba Bavuma and Aiden Markram are of course the two heavyweights in this side, but for the likes of Tony de Zorzi, Ryan Rickleton, Tristan Stubbs, and Dewald Brevis – none of whom have ever played a Test match in India – the challenge is huge, and South Africa will hope that each of them rises to it. 

Interestingly, in that same Pakistan series, South Africa’s spinners took 35 of the 40 Pakistani wickets to fall, which is a record. They will now hope to trouble India as well, in the form of Keshav Maharaj, Simon Harmer, and Senuran Muthusamy. And it is this this three-pronged spin attack which makes this series interesting, because Indian teams of the past few years have had plenty of problems against touring spinners. 

Bavuma knows that the challenges for South Africa in a tour of India are more mental than anything else. He’s confident of this team channeling their learnings from Pakistan into success in Kolkata and Eden Gardens. But do South Africa have the wherewithal to buck history and the odds and beat Gill’s home team?