Every NFL coach enters a new job with unique challenges, some inherit rebuilding projects, others step into chaotic locker rooms, but the one universal measuring stick is simple: wins. For new Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson, that’s the only outcome that matters in 2025. With a playoff-ready roster and a fanbase starving for postseason relevance, anything short of a winning season would be a step backward. So when Johnson was ranked below two other first-year head coaches heading into the season, it sparked legitimate outrage.

The Bears are not in a rebuild. They’re built to compete now. The hire of Johnson was made to unlock a roster loaded with talent and potential, and the baseline expectation for him is clear: at least 9-8. That’s the floor. 

Anything less would represent a failure, not just from a results standpoint, but as a sign of deeper problems inside Halas Hall. Johnson isn’t starting from scratch, he’s taking over a team with proven playmakers and a favorable path in the NFC North. This is a playoff-caliber squad.

Still, Johnson was given just a 9-8 projection, placing him behind two coaches with arguably tougher circumstances. That third-place ranking among new head coaches didn’t sit well with Bears fans. And rightfully so. If analysts are factoring in roster depth, scheme potential, and conference outlook, how does Johnson not come out on top? The metrics don’t match the projection.

At the top of the coaching projection list sits Brian Schottenheimer, tabbed to lead the Cowboys to an 11-6 record. The issue isn’t just that he ranked above Johnson, it’s that Schottenheimer did so while walking into one of the league’s most difficult divisions. 

The NFC East is a gauntlet. And Schottenheimer, viewed by many as the least inspiring hire of the offseason, is expected to guide Dallas to double-digit wins? Compared to Johnson’s creativity and offensive pedigree, the gap feels unjustified.

Pete Carroll came in second with a 10-7 prediction as head coach of the Raiders, but that forecast raises eyebrows too. While Carroll has the résumé, the Vegas fit feels off. Geno Smith isn’t a franchise quarterback, and the AFC West still runs through Kansas City. 

Add in Denver’s defensive core and the Chargers’ playmaking potential, and Vegas hitting 10 wins looks like a reach. In contrast, the Bears have a more balanced roster and a softer divisional path, especially with the Lions, Packers, and Vikings all facing transition phases.

The Raiders’ selection of Ashton Jeanty in the first round was promising, and his burst out of the backfield adds firepower. But counting on a rookie running back to swing the win column that dramatically is risky. Meanwhile, Chicago enters 2025 with a core of proven contributors and key offseason upgrades. Johnson’s situation isn’t based on projections, it’s grounded in evidence.

Chicago’s roster, top to bottom, is stronger than what either Dallas or Vegas brings to the table. On both sides of the ball, the Bears boast depth, speed, and versatility, assets that Johnson knows how to weaponize. His offensive innovation stands in stark contrast to Schottenheimer’s conservative approach and Carroll’s old-school tendencies. The disrespect in his ranking lies not just in the number, but in the logic used to justify it.

There’s a pattern here. National analysts have long underestimated Chicago, regardless of the actual progress made. Johnson may be new to the head coach role, but his reputation as one of the sharpest offensive minds in football was built through consistent results. His work in Detroit helped elevate the Lions’ offense to one of the most efficient in the league. If that version of Johnson shows up in Chicago, Coach of the Year buzz won’t be far behind.

More than a fresh face, Johnson brings a mindset tailored to the modern NFL: adaptive, aggressive, and tuned into maximizing playmaker strengths. His system is designed to stretch defenses and create mismatches, tools that matter in today’s league. Betting on which new coach will break through in 2025? Johnson should be your favorite.

The NFC North won’t be a walk, but it’s winnable. The Lions are ascending, the Packers are rebuilding around youth, and Minnesota remains competitive but uncertain. With the Bears’ current roster, a favorable schedule, and a coach capable of lighting a fire under the offense, 10 or even 11 wins is well within reach. If Johnson finds rhythm early, Chicago won’t just be in the hunt, they’ll be leading the charge.

Leaving Ben Johnson out of the top spots in this year’s coaching projections might look laughable by season’s end. As the league trends toward dynamic play-callers and calculated risk-takers, Johnson fits the mold perfectly. Carroll and Schottenheimer offer familiarity and steadiness. Johnson brings upside, and in the NFL, upside wins games.

By December, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Ben Johnson not just meeting expectations, but smashing them. And those early-season rankings? They’ll be nothing more than bulletin board material for the Bears’ breakout campaign.