UFC 318: Holloway vs Poirier 3 Preview

Max Holloway (26-8) and Dustin Poirier (30-9, 1 NC) are set to complete their trilogy in a high-stakes main event, with Holloway’s symbolic “BMF” title up for grabs. Though not an official championship, the belt carries pride, legacy, and a reputation for all-action violence—making it a fitting prize for two of the UFC’s most durable, fan-favorite veterans.

Holloway enters the bout after a recent resurgence, aside from setbacks against Alexander Volkanovski and Ilia Topuria. His third failed bid to dethrone Volkanovski gave way to a vacant title shot against Topuria at UFC 308 on October 26, where Holloway was knocked out for the first time in his career in Round 2. Still, earlier that year, Holloway claimed the “BMF” title with a spectacular knockout of Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 on April 13, 2024.

Poirier has traded wins and losses over his last six fights, with victories over Conor McGregor, Michael Chandler, and Benoit St. Denis balanced against stoppage defeats to Charles Oliveira, Justin Gaethje, and Islam Makhachev. Despite inconsistencies, Poirier remains a threat—still ranked among the elite with dangerous boxing and a history of thriving in wars.

Their rivalry began at UFC 143 on February 4, 2012, when Poirier submitted Holloway via triangle armbar in the Hawaiian’s UFC debut. They met again at UFC 236 on April 13, 2019, with Poirier winning a closely contested five-round decision for the interim lightweight title—despite being outlanded by Holloway. Now, 12 years after their first encounter, they meet for a third time with momentum, legacy, and the “BMF” belt on the line.

Holloway will bring his signature cardio, pace, and relentless volume, aiming to overwhelm Poirier with combinations and body-head attacks. After suffering his first career knockout, he’s expected to be more cautious early but will aim to push the pace late and capitalize on fatigue.

Poirier’s strategy will center around power, timing, and disrupting Holloway’s rhythm with clean counters. His boxing, low kicks, and ability to land in the pocket remain potent, but durability questions have surfaced after recent knockout losses. If Holloway pulls him into another prolonged war, Poirier’s ability to manage the pace could determine the outcome.

Much like their second fight, this one is competitive early, with Poirier landing the cleaner shots in the first two rounds. However, Holloway’s pace builds in the championship rounds, and by Round 5, he’s walking Poirier down. Holloway wins by unanimous decision after another high-volume, five-round classic—retaining the “BMF” belt in a battle of grit and endurance.

Pick: Max Holloway 1.87 | Dafabet

More than a year after their first booking fell through, Marvin Vettori (19-8-1) and Brendan Allen (24-7) will finally settle their score. Originally scheduled to headline UFC Fight Night 240 in April 2024, the bout was canceled when Vettori withdrew due to injury. Chris Curtis stepped in and lost to Allen in a rematch—but tensions between Vettori and Allen only grew.

Vettori now returns on the first losing streak of his career, having dropped back-to-back unanimous decisions to Jared Cannonier in 2023 and Roman Dolidze at UFC Fight Night 254 on March 15. Since his 2021 title challenge loss to Israel Adesanya, Vettori has managed just two wins and has gone the distance in his last eight bouts—six of them five-rounders. His toughness remains unquestioned, but his inability to shift momentum or finish opponents has stalled his trajectory.

Allen, too, comes in needing a win. After reeling off a seven-fight win streak that included four rear-naked choke finishes and big wins over Andre Muniz and Paul Craig, he’s now dropped two straight decisions to Nassourdine Imavov and Anthony Hernandez. Once a surging contender, Allen now finds himself in must-win territory.

The rivalry boiled over when the two exchanged punches backstage at the 2024 PFL Playoffs 2 in Florida, adding real animosity to this long-brewing matchup. With both men on two-fight skids, the stakes are higher than ever.

Vettori will look to rely on his trademark pressure, durability, and volume. His defensive grappling will be key, as he’s shown an ability to neutralize submission threats and keep fights standing. However, his recent performances have exposed a lack of tactical adjustment when facing adversity.

Allen, meanwhile, will aim to bring chaos to the grappling exchanges, where he thrives in transitions and scrambles. His submission arsenal—especially from back control—remains a danger, but he’ll need to find a way past Vettori’s takedown defense and avoid extended striking exchanges where Vettori’s pace and chin can shine.

Early on, Allen finds success in the clinch and scores a couple of takedowns, but Vettori’s resilience keeps him from falling behind. As the fight wears on, Allen struggles to maintain control, and Vettori grinds his way forward with consistent output. The Italian takes control in the final round, securing a unanimous decision victory in a grueling, hard-fought contest.