Is a NASCAR Playoff Upset Brewing?

Heading into the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, attention has turned toward the bottom four seeded drivers who entered the postseason with elimination predictions stacked against them. 

Team Penske’s Austin Cindric, Wood Brothers Racing’s Josh Berry, Trackhouse Racing’s Shane van Gisbergen, and Richard Childress Racing’s Austin Dillon were the quartet expected to face the toughest climb. Each had unique challenges, and as the Darlington opener played out, the playoff picture immediately shifted, creating new storylines around survival, potential upsets, and surprising runs toward the Round of 12.

The playoffs opened with widespread expectations that Austin Cindric, Josh Berry, Shane van Gisbergen, and Austin Dillon would be among the first casualties. While the points reset temporarily provided a slight cushion for some, they were all under pressure to deliver strong opening-round results. 

The Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway immediately tested that pressure, with a mixture of wrecks, poor finishes, and surprising resilience shaping the outlook for the coming weeks.

Berry’s postseason chances took a major hit before they ever truly began. A wreck on the very first lap of the Darlington race ended his night prematurely, locking him into a bottom position in the playoff standings. That single misstep dramatically reduced his margin for recovery.

Dillon failed to capitalize on the opportunity to climb the standings. A lackluster 23rd-place finish left him below the cutoff line and added weight to the prediction that his playoff journey may be short-lived.

Van Gisbergen, who entered as high as sixth in the playoff picture, plummeted to 12th after a 32nd-place finish at Darlington. While still technically above the cut line, his lack of oval experience and results make his position extremely vulnerable heading into Gateway and Bristol.

Alex Bowman’s postseason woes continued. Starting below the cutoff because of weak playoff points, his 31st-place finish at Darlington left him firmly in trouble and unable to climb into safety.

Tyler Reddick entered the playoffs below the Round of 12 cut line but produced one of the most important turnarounds at Darlington. By finishing strong, he propelled himself into fourth place in the overall playoff standings. His sudden leap shuffled the danger zone for other drivers, pushing a former champion into unfamiliar territory below the elimination line.

Reddick’s climb to fourth demonstrated how quickly fortunes can shift when playoff points and performance converge. His push immediately turned him from a vulnerable driver into a contender.

Logano, once considered secure, became the top driver below the cutoff line. Sitting three points behind van Gisbergen, the two-time champion now finds himself in early danger of elimination.

Cindric entered the postseason as one of the most likely eliminations, but Darlington proved he may be on the verge of defying those odds. His 12th-place finish left him ninth in the standings and 12 points above the cutoff line. That margin, while not massive, places him in a position of strength heading into tracks where he has shown speed and capability.

Cindric’s past at Gateway offers promise. He won last year’s race at World Wide Technology Raceway and nearly finished runner-up if not for Ryan Blaney’s late fuel misfortune. That history positions him well heading into the second race of the round.

Cindric’s April victory at Talladega kept his playoff hopes alive, as he would have missed the postseason otherwise despite finishing 15th in regular-season points. With Talladega looming in the Round of 8, his superspeedway prowess remains a wild card that could carry him deep into the playoffs.

Before the Round of 12 cut, the Cup Series heads to Illinois for Enjoy Illinois 300, Sunday, September 7, setting up the Saturday night cutoff at Bristol Motor Speedway, Bass Pro Shops Night Race on September 13, where the field trims to 12.

For Cindric, the playoffs represent not just survival but also the chance to change narratives around his career. With speculation about a potential offseason departure from Team Penske after his father’s firing from the IndyCar program in May, advancing deeper into the playoffs could silence critics and prove his worth.